May 2025 – Mik4mob

Bitcoin hitting $220K ‘reasonable’ in 2025, says gold-based forecast

Bitcoin’s “power curve” is churning out giant six-figure BTC price targets this year — can BTC/USD really reach $220,000 or more?

New Bitcoin price targets leverage interplay with gold to deliver $200,000 and higher this year.

Bitcoin price cycles remain in focus as part of the BTC price “power curve” model.

Eating gold’s market cap could propel BTC/USD to nearly $1 million by the decade’s end.

Bitcoin
BTC
$102,693
has a “decent chance” of hitting $250,000 or more in 2025 as attention turns to gold copycat moves.

In his latest analysis, X analytics account Apsk32 argued that the four-year BTC price cycle should provide unprecedented highs this year.

Bitcoin “power curve” delivers $200,000+ target
Bitcoin following gold to new all-time highs is a popular theory among bulls. Historically, BTC/USD follows XAU/USD higher with a delay of several months.

For Apsk32, the implications are considerable this time around; with gold hitting a record $3,500 per ounce, the future for BTC price action is bright.

“Bitcoin’s position relative to gold has improved considerably since April,” he told X followers alongside his dedicated “power curve” tool.

“This is the indicator that gives me hope for higher than expected returns later this year.”

The power curve concept involves measuring Bitcoin price in gold ounces to avoid the inflationary nature of the US dollar.

“Here, I’m measuring the value of the Bitcoin network (market cap) in gold ounces and fitting that value to a power curve,” Apsk32 explained in a dedicated X post in March.

Among the results is a potential bull market top target that contextualizes the old 2017 top of $20,000.

“If Bitcoin’s network value measured in gold continues to follow a power curve, and gold holds its current value, and Bitcoin’s price returns to ‘five years ahead of support,’ we could hit Josh’s $444K this year,” it added.

This week, Apsk32 suggested that a more “reasonable” target for 2025 would be up to $220,000.

“If we start getting above $250k, that’s what I would consider ‘higher than expected,’” he responded when asked about the outlook.

“I do think there’s a decent chance we get there, it’s just not the most likely outcome.”

Half gold’s future market cap means $1 million BTC
Continuing the gold theme, Bitcoin analyst Sam Callahan considered data showing how high BTC/USD could go if it were to capture varying portions of gold’s market cap.

This could come about thanks to a shift toward “digital gold,” something widely anticipated to gain momentum in the coming years.

“If gold hits $5,000/oz by 2030 and Bitcoin captures 50% of its market cap, that puts BTC at $924K,” Callahan noted, alongside the data from the latest report by In Gold We Trust, released this week.

Bitcoin price reclaims $100K for first time since January

Unlike the previous $100,000 hits, the new price spike came as Bitcoin market dominance surged above 60%, reflecting more bullish BTC sentiment.

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $100,000 price level for the first time since January, reflecting renewed bullish sentiment among investors.

Bitcoin
BTC
$104,032
reclaimed the $100,000 mark on May 8 at 3:22 pm UTC, surging 4.2% from the intraday low of $95,967, according to data from CoinGecko.

It marked the third time that BTC has broken through the six-figure level since first achieving it on Dec. 5, 2024. A second all-time high followed on Jan. 20 ahead of US President Donald Trump’s inauguration.

Unlike the previous $100,000 hits, the new price spike came as Bitcoin market dominance surged above 60%, reflecting potential bearish sentiment for altcoins.

Bitcoin dominance below 60% in past $100,000 breakthroughs
Bitcoin dominance — the asset’s share of the total cryptocurrency market — has been steadily rising over the past year. During its first run to $100,000 in December 2024, BTC dominance stood at 52%. By January 2025, that figure had increased to 54%.

The latest spike in Bitcoin dominance matches historic levels last seen in early 2021, when Bitcoin was trading at around $36,000 and heading toward its previous all-time highs above $60,000.

“Bitcoin has been showing strength for weeks now, outstripping other digital tokens, and scarcely flinching against the sort of geo-political events in Asia and the Middle East that may have impacted it in the past,” Mercuryo CEO Petr Kozyakov told Cointelegraph.

“With gold also running good all year, there’s now a case for saying that Bitcoin may have proven itself as an economic hedge and a long-term store of value,” he added.

Why is the Bitcoin price rising now?
Bitcoin’s latest $100,000 breakthrough came amid a combination of political, institutional and macroeconomic factors.

Some in the community linked Bitcoin’s latest bullish action to a potential trade deal between the US and the United Kingdom, which Trump hinted at in a Truth Social post on May 7.

“Bitcoin is hovering near $100,000, a key psychological level for traders, after Trump hinted at a major trade deal, likely with the UK,” Kronos Research chief investment officer Vincent Liu told Cointelegraph.

Liu said the rally is also supported by falling bond yields, a weakening dollar and renewed institutional inflows in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which saw $1.8 billion of inflows in the past trading week.

Despite bullish momentum and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index consolidating in the “Green” area at its current score of 65, some key US economic data is anticipated to forecast Bitcoin’s moves shortly, according to Liu:

“While momentum is strong, upcoming US budget data on May 12 and CPI [Consumer Price Index] on May 13 will be key in determining if BTC can break and hold above this level. For the rally to sustain, the trade deal narrative will need to evolve into concrete progress.”
According to Ben Caselin, chief marketing officer at VALR, there is a “good chance” that Bitcoin will chart new highs, north of $110,000, sooner rather than later, as the asset seeks to consolidate its value above $100,000.

“Retail is only set to come in toward what is traditionally the latter part of the Bitcoin four-year cycle, which might see a macro top reached in Q4 of this year,” Caselin told Cointelegraph.

At the same time, given continued progress in global crypto regulation and multiple strategic Bitcoin reserve initiatives, Caselin also sees a chance of “prolonged and accelerated growth beyond 2025.”